Global Change Biology

BackgroundInsecticides remain the cornerstone of mosquito vector control for malaria, dengue, and other mosquito-borne diseases, yet global patterns of deployment and their socioeconomic and environmental drivers are poorly characterized. Understanding where and why insecticides are used is essential for better targeting control efforts and ensuring they are effective, equitable, and efficient. MethodsWe analyzed annual country-level insecticide-use data from 122 countries (1990-2019), reported as standard spray coverage for insecticide-treated nets (ITNs), residual spraying (RS), spatial spraying (SS), and larviciding (LA). Generalized linear mixed models and hurdle models quantified associations between deployment and disease incidence, human development index (HDI), human population density, temperature, and precipitation. Models were evaluated using repeated cross-validation and applied to generate downscaled predictions of insecticide use at subnational administrative region level 2 (ADM2) globally. FindingsInsecticide deployment increased with malaria and dengue incidence, but this response was substantially stronger in higher-HDI countries, indicating that deployment depends on socioeconomic capacity as well as disease burden that leads to weaker scaling in lower-resource settings. Intervention types exhibited distinct patterns; ITN use tracked malaria burden, whereas infrastructure-intensive approaches (e.g., RS and SS) were concentrated in higher-HDI settings and increased with Aedes-borne disease incidence. Downscaled ADM2-level maps uncovered substantial within-country heterogeneity that is obscured at the national scale, highlighting regions where predicted deployment remains low relative to disease risk across sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, and parts of Latin America. InterpretationGlobal insecticide deployment reflects not only epidemiological need but also economic and logistical capacity, creating mismatches between risk and control. High-resolution mapping can support more equitable allocation of interventions, guide insecticide resistance stewardship, and improve strategic planning as climate and urbanization reshape mosquito-borne disease risk.

Military aviation training noise remains understudied despite its widespread impacts across urban, rural, and wilderness areas. The predominance of low-frequency noise and repetitive training can create pervasive noise pollution, yet past research often fails to capture the full range of health and quality-of-life effects. This study analyzed two complaint datasets related to Whidbey Island Naval Air Station noise: U.S. Navy records (2017-2020) and Quiet Skies Over San Juan County data (2021-2023). We analyzed and mapped sentiment intensity from noise complaints relative to modeled annual noise exposure, developed a typology to classify impacts, and modeled the environmental and operational factors influencing complaints. Findings revealed widespread negative sentiment and anger, often beyond the bounds of estimated noise contours, suggesting that annual cumulative noise models inadequately estimate community impacts. Complaints consistently highlighted sleep disturbance, hearing and health concerns, and compromised home environments due to shaking, vibration, and disruption of daily life. Residents also reported significant social, recreational, and work disruptions, along with feelings of fear, helplessness, and concern for children's well-being. The number of complaints were strongly associated with training schedules, with late-night sessions being the strongest predictor. A delayed response pattern suggests residents reach a frustration threshold before filing complaints. Overall, our findings demonstrate persistent negative sentiment and diverse impacts from military aviation noise. Results highlight the need for improved noise metrics, modeling and operational adjustments to mitigate the most disruptive effects.

Loneliness--the perceived discrepancy between desired and actual social connection--is a common and aversive psychological state associated with a range of adverse health outcomes. Several theoretical models suggest that these associations may operate partly through health behaviors. In this preregistered study, we used data from the All of Us Research Program to evaluate associations of loneliness and functional rurality (FR), a study-specific contextual index of reduced neighborhood accessibility, with Fitbit-derived physical activity and sleep outcomes. Final samples included 16,912 participants for physical activity analyses and 13,937 for sleep analyses. In adjusted models, higher FR was associated with greater loneliness ({beta} = 0.061, 95% CI [0.045, 0.077], p = 9.63 x 10-14). FR and loneliness were independently associated with fewer daily steps and lower moderate-to-vigorous physical activity. Loneliness was also associated with shorter sleep duration, greater sleep duration variability, higher odds of short sleep, and higher odds of low sleep efficiency. FR was not associated with sleep duration or sleep duration variability but showed a small positive association with mean sleep efficiency and lower odds of low sleep efficiency. Interaction analyses provided little evidence that FR modified the associations of loneliness with most outcomes, although the FR x loneliness interaction was significant for sleep duration variability, indicating that loneliness was more strongly associated with irregular sleep duration in higher-FR contexts. Sensitivity analyses using stricter valid-day thresholds, winsorization, quartile-based exposure coding, and a backward 30-day window yielded directionally similar findings. These results suggest that FR and loneliness are independently associated with lower physical activity, whereas loneliness shows a more consistent relationship with adverse sleep patterns.

Aims Indoor air pollution resulting from combustion of unclean cooking fuels has been linked to adverse health outcomes, but evidence regarding its association with mental health in low- and middle-income countries remains limited. We investigated the association between household use of unclean cooking fuels, as a proxy for indoor air pollution, and depression symptoms among adults aged 45 years and older in India, and assessed effect modification by age, sex, caste, and rural/urban residence. Methods We conducted a cross-sectional analysis of the first wave (2017-2018) of data from the Longitudinal Aging Study in India (LASI), a nationally representative survey of adults aged [≥]45 years. Cooking fuel type was classified as clean or unclean, and depression symptoms were assessed using the 10-item Centre for Epidemiologic Studies Depression (CES-D-10) scale. We used logistic regression to estimate odds ratios for depression symptoms, and linear regression to compare mean CES-D-10 scores by cooking fuel type, adjusting for sociodemographic and housing characteristics. Results We included 62,650 respondents. Median age was 57 years (IQR: 50-65), 46.7% were women, 47.6% reported using unclean cooking fuels, and 27.6% screened positive on the CES-D-10. After adjusting for sociodemographic and housing characteristics, use of unclean cooking fuels was associated with higher odds of screening positive on the CES-D-10 (aOR: 1.08; 95% CI: 1.02, 1.15), and higher mean CES-D-10 scores (adjusted mean difference: 0.34; 95% CI: 0.24, 0.44). The association was more pronounced among individuals living in urban areas (aOR: 1.36; 95% CI: 1.21, 1.53). Conclusion Use of unclean cooking fuels was associated with depression symptoms among older adults in India, and especially among those living in urban areas.

HighlightsO_LIHealth inequalities have widened over 15 years, favouring high-income groups C_LIO_LIInequality in physical activity & mental health widened the most pre-intervention C_LIO_LIPost-intervention, inequalities persisted but stayed relatively unchanged. C_LIO_LILong-term illness and unemployment were key drivers of inequality C_LIO_LIThe greenway may have slowed down the inequality widening but the impact is limited C_LI BackgroundEvidence concerning health inequalities following urban green and blue space UGBS) interventions is limited. This study examined the changes in health inequalities after a major urban regeneration project, the Connswater Community Greenway (CCG), in Belfast, UK. MethodCross-sectional household surveys were conducted in 2010/11 (baseline), 2017/18 (immediately after completion), and 2023/24 (long-term follow-up) with a sample of approximately 1,000 adults each wave. Using concentration indices (CI), income-related health inequalities for three outcomes (physical activity, mental wellbeing and quality of life) were measured. A regression-based decomposition of concentration index examined the contribution of sociodemographic factors to the observed inequalities underpinning each outcome over time. ResultsAcross three waves, there was widening of inequalities over the 15-year period across all three health outcomes, with those from high-income groups reported higher levels of physical activity (CI=0.33, SE=0.026), better mental wellbeing (CI=0.03, SE=0.003), and better quality of life (CI=0.09, SE=0.008). The widening inequalities mainly occurred during the construction phase of CCG (2010-2017) and remained stable post-intervention (2017-2023). Decomposition analysis revealed that the pro-poor concentration of long-term illness and unemployment was the key driver that together explained approximately 51%-76% of the inequalities. ConclusionThe CCG was limited in reducing health inequalities which were mainly driven by long-term illness and unemployment - factors beyond the direct scope of the UGBS intervention - resulting in low-income groups likely to fall further behind the wealthier groups. The widening of inequality is consistent with findings from other public interventions that did not have a primary equity focus.

This study investigated retirement adjustment in retired police officers in the UK (N = 289), examining how time since leaving the service moderates the relationship between perceived organisational support and retirement adjustment while accounting for resilience. Results indicated a developmental trend: organisational support remains stable initially but becomes increasingly influential in later life. Using Johnson-Neyman analysis, a threshold of 32.07 years was identified, after which the association reaches statistical significance. These findings suggest an organisational legacy effect; for the older generation, the retrospective perception of being valued by the service acts as a durable psychological resource. This study offers a novel conceptualisation of long-term organisational influence by identifying a temporally delayed legacy effect that extends beyond existing models of retirement adjustment. The study advocate for lifelong wellbeing strategies that extend, recognising that the organisational relationship continues to shape adjustment outcomes decades after the conclusion of active duty.

BackgroundEvidence on the long-term impact of urban green and blue spaces (UGBS) interventions remains limited. This study is a 15-year evaluation of an urban greenway development in Belfast (United Kingdom), assessing the potential effects of this UGBS intervention on physical activity (PA), mental wellbeing and co-benefits. MethodsUsing quasi-experimental design, a repeated cross-sectional survey was conducted in 2010 (baseline), 2017 (post-opening) and 2023 (long-term follow-up) with about 1,200 adults participated each wave. Outcomes included PA, mental wellbeing, general health, quality of life, social capital and environmental perception. Multilevel mixed-effect regressions were performed to examine within-group changes at long-term follow-up. Difference-in-differences analysis investigated the between-group changes that might be attributed to the greenway. Additional comparative analyses included distance-decay analysis and comparison with population trends in Northern Ireland. ResultsAt six years after completion, the greenway intervention appears to buffer a decline in duration of PA - mainly from moderate-intensity activity (decline lower by 118.6 min/week, 95%CI: 3.9-232.2) but with no significant impact on the proportion of the population meeting the recommended PA level. The intervention is associated with a smaller decline in self-rated health (4.98 units; 95%CI: 0.62-9.34) relative to control group. Intervention association with mental wellbeing was positive but not significant (p=0.30). The greenway also showed positive effects on social capital and environmental perceptions, with impacts most evident in improving safety and trust in the local area. ConclusionThis study provides evidence to support the public health impact of UGBS and its long-term health and social benefits.

BackgroundSchistosomiasis remains a major public health challenge in sub-Saharan Africa. Recent World Health Organization (WHO) guidance calls for community-wide treatment and fine-scale data to optimise preventive chemotherapy (PC) strategies, yet the practical implications for resource allocation by health ministries are unclear. MethodsWe analysed epidemiological and cost data from Ethiopia and Zimbabwe to compare survey designs and five implementation scenarios. Scenarios varied by data source, administrative unit of implementation, WHO guidance on PC strategies. Outcomes were target population, praziquantel needs, and delivery costs. ResultsGeostatistical surveys reduced sample size by up to 90% and survey costs by [≥]72% compared with a design-based approach, while increasing spatial coverage. Applying updated WHO guidance expanded eligibility to pre-school-aged children and adults, and in one scenario increased treatment needs by 72% in Ethiopia and 262% in Zimbabwe. Correspondingly, praziquantel requirements and delivery costs were driven primarily by expanded age eligibility rather than geographic coverage. ConclusionsGeostatistical surveys provide substantial efficiency gains for impact assessments, enabling cost-efficient, granular targeting. However, implementing 2022 WHO guidance was the dominant driver of increases in programme scope and resource needs, underscoring the importance of accurate fine-scale data to guide efficient planning and budgeting toward elimination goals. Author summarySchistosomiasis control programmes are required to use finer-scale data and updated World Health Organization (WHO) guidance to decide where and how often to deliver praziquantel. We analysed national schistosomiasis data and programme costs from Ethiopia and Zimbabwe to compare different approaches to impact assessment surveys and to estimate how treatment needs change under alternative decision rules.We found that model-based geostatistical surveys can reduce the number of people that need to be sampled and the cost of surveys while providing more detailed information for planning at sub-district level. However, when we applied the 2022 WHO schistosomiasis guidance, expanded eligibility (including adults and pre-school-age children and a lower threshold for community-wide treatment) substantially increased the number of people needing treatment. In our scenarios, expanded eligibility drove much larger increases in praziquantel requirements and delivery costs than changes in geographic coverage. Our findings help health ministries to anticipate the operational and budget implications of updated guidance and highlight why accurate fine-scale data are essential for equitable and realistic planning toward elimination.

Female genital cutting (FGC) is identified within global health and human rights discourse as aligned with gender inequality and female disempowerment. The persistence of FGC in high-prevalence societies is assumed to reflect womens limited influence over decisions concerning their daughters. Yet anthropological research has questioned whether this interpretation adequately reflects how FGC is organized within practicing communities. Across two studies with 176,728 participants from 15 African and Asian countries, we examine whether mothers attitudes toward FGC predict daughters circumcision status and whether this relationship varies with regional FGC prevalence. Multilevel logistic regression models show that maternal attitudes strongly predict daughter circumcision status across both datasets. Contrary to expectations derived from disempowerment frameworks, the association between maternal attitudes and daughter outcomes is not weaker in high-prevalence contexts, it is stronger. These findings suggest that interpretations of FGC as reflecting female disempowerment may mischaracterize the social dynamics of societies in which FGC is common. Policy implications of the findings are discussed.

Respiratory infections caused by bacterial pathogens like Mycobacterium tuberculosis and Bordetella pertussis have increased since the COVID 19 pandemic, yet clinical surveillance of both suffers from underreporting and delayed diagnoses. Wastewater monitoring is a valuable public health surveillance tool that can help fill gaps in clinical data yet has rarely been applied to respiratory bacterial pathogens despite evidence of bacterial shedding via excretion types that enter wastewater. In this study, we investigated the possibility for wastewater monitoring of two bacterial respiratory diseases, tuberculosis and pertussis, using two case studies of wastewater monitoring for M. tuberculosis and B. pertussis. We retrospectively measured concentrations of these pathogens in wastewater samples collected longitudinally from communities with and without known outbreaks of these diseases. We designed and validated a novel B. pertussis specific assay for the NAD(P) gene; B. pertussis nucleic acids were detected sporadically in wastewater during an identified outbreak. We used a highly specific, established assay for M. tuberculosis nucleic acids, and found low concentrations of the marker in wastewater that were lag-correlated with clinical incidence rates 5 weeks later. Findings support the potential of wastewater monitoring for M. tuberculosis and B. pertussis to enable identification of communities with outbreaks of tuberculosis and pertussis and provide early warning for tuberculosis.

BackgroundIn England, individuals with chronic liver disease (CLD) are among those with the lowest seasonal influenza vaccine uptake despite being at elevated risk of severe influenza. We examined the relationship between CLD severity and aetiology, and influenza vaccine uptake in England. MethodsA retrospective cohort study of adults (18-115 years) using Clinical Practice Research Datalink Aurum primary care data was conducted for five seasons (2019/20-2023/24). Poisson regression was used to estimate rates of uptake by CLD severity (clinical diagnoses categorised as low, moderate, or severe) and aetiology (alcohol-related, viral-related, and diagnoses in the Green Book guidelines). FindingsThere were 182,174-277,470 with CLD per cohort. Among those who were additionally age-eligible for vaccination, uptake was 71{middle dot}1-79{middle dot}7% compared to 30{middle dot}9-40{middle dot}5% in those not additionally age-eligible. Among individuals below age eligibility without other comorbidities, severity was associated with higher uptake (incidence rate ratio [IRR] moderate 1{middle dot}80, 95% CI 1{middle dot}69-1{middle dot}90; severe 1{middle dot}95, 95% CI 1{middle dot}84-2{middle dot}08 in 2023/24); there was no effect in those with at least one additional comorbidity (moderate 1{middle dot}05, 95% CI 0{middle dot}99-1{middle dot}10; severe 1{middle dot}05, 95% CI 1{middle dot}01-1{middle dot}09). Alcohol- and viral-related aetiology were also associated with increased uptake in those not additionally age-eligible. Among individuals meeting age eligibility without additional comorbidities, severity was associated with a reduced uptake (moderate 0{middle dot}81, 95% CI 0{middle dot}73-0{middle dot}90; severe 0{middle dot}79, 95% CI 0{middle dot}74-0{middle dot}85), with attenuation in those with additional comorbidities (moderate 0{middle dot}99, 95% CI 0{middle dot}94-1{middle dot}04; severe 0{middle dot}91, 95% CI 0{middle dot}89-0{middle dot}94). InterpretationCLD severity and aetiology were important determinants of uptake in the absence of additional indications for influenza vaccination. Future research should prioritise understanding facilitators and barriers to vaccine uptake in individuals with CLD, particularly for those at highest risk of severe infection. FundingNIHR Health Protection Research Unit in Vaccines and Immunisation (NIHR200929/NIHR207408). Research in contextO_ST_ABSEvidence before this studyC_ST_ABSWe searched PubMed up to June 2025 using the terms "chronic liver disease", "cirrhosis", "hepatitis", "influenza vaccination", "seasonal influenza", and "vaccine uptake". Previous research, including national data from England, has shown that people with chronic liver disease tend to have lower seasonal influenza vaccine uptake than individuals with other medical comorbidities which qualify for vaccination such as diabetes, chronic kidney disease or immunosuppression. The reasons for low influenza vaccine uptake in people with chronic liver disease are not well understood, and it is therefore difficult for vaccination providers, principally primary care services in England, to tailor interventions aimed to increase uptake. Qualitative research involving individuals aged less than 65 years living in England with clinical risk comorbidities, most commonly diabetes, found that chronic disease management pathways inconsistently provided information about the importance of influenza vaccination as part of chronic disease management. Individuals with long-term conditions reported low perceived risk of influenza infection and limited awareness of vaccine benefits as important reasons for non-uptake. We hypothesised that the severity and aetiology of chronic liver disease may be important determinants of uptake. Added value of this studyWe conducted a population-based study to examine how chronic liver disease severity and aetiology influence seasonal influenza vaccine uptake in adults in England. Using primary care electronic health record data from five consecutive influenza seasons (2019/20-2023/24), we found that more severe chronic liver disease was associated with a substantial increase in vaccine uptake in those without additional indications for seasonal influenza vaccination (age-based eligibility or other qualifying clinical risk comorbidities). Alcohol- and viral-related aetiology were also associated with increased uptake in those who were not additionally age-eligible for vaccination. In contrast, severity, alcohol- and viral-related underlying aetiology were associated with a modest reduction in uptake for individuals with chronic liver disease who also qualified for vaccination due to age. Implications of all the available evidenceDespite clear clinical vulnerability to infection and a substantially elevated risk of morbidity and mortality following infection, a large proportion of adults with chronic liver disease, particularly those aged under 65 years, remain unvaccinated against seasonal influenza each year. This study suggests that chronic liver disease severity and underlying aetiology are important determinants of uptake in individuals not meeting age-based vaccine eligibility, particularly in those without additional clinical risk comorbidities. This could be because of differing perceptions of influenza risk, or due to varying degrees of interaction with healthcare specialists as part of chronic disease management. In individuals who met age-based vaccination eligibility, the negative effect of severity on influenza vaccine uptake may reflect greater barriers to accessing vaccination services by those with more complex health needs, or competing medical priorities for long-term condition management during consultations. To inform targeted vaccination strategies, future research should aim to understand the specific facilitators and barriers to influenza vaccination experienced by individuals with chronic liver disease. This should include perspectives of individuals with different disease severity, across different age groups, in those with and without additional co-morbidities.

Background Higher levels of sedentary behaviour, such as leisure screen time (LST), and lower levels of physical activity are associated with diseases across multiple body systems which contribute to a large global health burden. Whether these associations are causal is unclear. The primary aim of this study is to investigate the causal effects of higher LST (given greater power) and, secondarily, lower moderate-to-vigorous intensity physical activity (MVPA), on a wide range of diseases in a hypothesis-free approach. Methods A two-sample Mendelian randomisation phenome-wide association study was conducted for the main analyses. Genetic single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) were first selected as exposure genetic instruments for LST (hours of television watched per day; 117 SNPs) and MVPA (higher vs. lower; 18 SNPs) based on the genome-wide significant threshold (p < 5*10-8) from the largest relevant genome-wide association study (GWAS). For disease outcomes, we used summary results from FinnGen GWAS, including 1,719 diseases defined by hospital discharge International Classification of Diseases (ICD) codes in 453,733 European participants. For the main analyses, we used the inverse-variance weighting method with a Bonferroni corrected p-value of p [&le;] 3.47*10-4. Sensitivity analyses included Steiger filtering, MR-Egger and weighted median analyses, and data from UK Biobank were used to explore replication. Findings Genetically predicted higher LST was associated with increased risk of 87 (5.1% of the 1,719) diseases. Most of these diseases were in musculoskeletal and connective tissue (n=37), genitourinary (n=12) and respiratory (n=8) systems. Genetic liability to lower MVPA was associated with six diseases: three in musculoskeletal and connective tissue and genitourinary systems (with greater risk of these diseases also identified with higher LST), and three in respiratory and genitourinary systems. Sensitivity analyses largely supported the main analyses. Results replicated in UK Biobank, where data available. Conclusions Higher levels of sedentary behaviour, and lower levels of physical activity, causally increase the risk of diseases across multiple body systems, making them promising targets for reducing multimorbidity.

ObjectiveBiologically defined sepsis subtypes have been identified in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), but limited access to molecular diagnostics challenges broader evaluation and implementation in resource-limited settings. We assessed whether models including bedside clinical and rapid microbiologic data could accurately stratify Ugandan adults with sepsis by molecular subtype. DesignSecondary analysis of two prospective observational sepsis cohorts, testing bedside-adaptable classifier models against transcriptomic and proteomic subtype assignments. SettingEntebbe Regional Referral Hospital (urban) and Tororo General Hospital (rural), Uganda. PatientsAdults ([&ge;]18 years) hospitalized with sepsis, with available transcriptomic (N=355) and/or proteomic (N=495) profiling enabling subtype assignment. InterventionsNone. Measurements and Main ResultsUsing data from two prospective cohorts (RESERVE-U-2-TOR and RESERVE-U-1-EBB), we evaluated bedside-adaptable models against Uganda-derived molecular sepsis subtypes, and, secondarily, against molecular subtypes and axes derived in high-income countries. In RESERVE-U-2-TOR, clinical models including demographics and bedside physiological variables demonstrated moderate discrimination for transcriptomic and proteomic subtype assignment (AUROC 0.75 [95% CI, 0.69-0.81] and 0.73 [0.66-0.80], respectively) with strong calibration (Integrated Calibration Index [Eavg] [&le;]0.015 for both models). Adding rapid diagnostic results for HIV, malaria, and tuberculosis produced similar performance (AUROC 0.76 and 0.74; Eavg [&le;]0.016). In RESERVE-U-1-EBB, discrimination for clinical and clinico-microbiological models was more variable (AUROC range 0.63-0.75) while calibration remained acceptable (Eavg [&le;]0.053). Performance was similar when models were evaluated against molecular sepsis frameworks derived in high-income countries, with acceptable calibration and moderate discrimination. ConclusionsBedside-adaptable clinical models, with or without rapid microbiologic testing, demonstrated acceptable calibration but only modest discrimination for molecular sepsis subtype assignment in Uganda. Expanding laboratory capacity and access to scalable, low-cost molecular biomarker assays will be necessary to advance precision sepsis care in LMIC settings. Key PointsO_ST_ABSQuestionC_ST_ABSAmong adults hospitalized with sepsis in a resource-limited setting, can bedside clinical variables, alone or combined with rapid pathogen diagnostics, accurately stratify molecular sepsis subtype assignments? FindingsIn two prospective Ugandan sepsis cohorts, bedside clinical and clinico-microbiologic models showed robust calibration but only modest discrimination for classifying Uganda-derived transcriptomic and proteomic subtypes. Models also achieved moderate performance for stratifying high-income-country-derived transcriptomic subtypes and immune dysfunction axes, suggesting bedside variables reflect illness severity but incompletely capture underlying molecular signatures. MeaningBedside-adaptable models can support reasonably calibrated risk estimation for molecular sepsis stratification in resource-limited settings but lack sufficient discriminatory power to serve as stand-alone tools. These findings support efforts to improve acute-care laboratory capacity and access to scalable molecular biomarker panels, with the goal of enabling precision sepsis care in low- and middle-income countries.

Cardiac arrhythmias are abnormal heart rhythms characterized by disordered electrical dynamics that impair cardiac function and pose a major global burden of morbidity and mortality. Early and accurate prediction of arrhythmic anomalies from physiological time series is crucial for effective intervention, yet remains challenging due to the nonlinear, nonstationary, and individualized nature of cardiac dynamics. Despite significant advances in machine learning-based arrhythmia detection, most existing methods operate as static classifiers on electrocardiographic signals and lack online prediction, patient-specific adaptation, and mechanistic interpretability. From a dynamical-systems perspective, arrhythmias represent qualitative regime transitions, often preceded by subtle, temporally extended deviations that are difficult to detect in real time. Here we introduce CASCADE (Chaotic Attractor Sensitivity for Cardiac Anomaly Detection), an online and personalized anomaly forecasting framework built on a special type of reservoir computing called Dynamical Systems Machine Learning (DynML). DynML employs ensembles of continuous-time nonlinear dynamical systems as chaotic reservoirs to reconstruct and forecast short-term cardiac dynamics on a beat-to-beat basis, training only a linear readout. This design enables efficient online adaptation without retraining the underlying dynamical model. Rather than relying on static beat-level classification, CASCADE identifies arrhythmic events as failures of short-term predictability, manifested as statistically significant deviations between predicted and observed dynamics relative to subject-specific baselines. Detection performance is governed by the intrinsic dynamical complexity of the reservoir, quantified by topological entropy. Reservoirs operating near critical entropy regimes optimally amplify subtle, temporally extended irregularities in heartbeat dynamics, rendering incipient arrhythmic signatures linearly separable at the readout level. Topological entropy thus serves both as a predictor of model performance and a principled control parameter for reservoir design. When evaluated on the MIT-BIH Arrhythmia dataset, CASCADE achieved consistently high F1 scores, precision, recall, and overall accuracy across diverse patient populations, demonstrating strong generalizability across clinical and real-world settings. By integrating chaotic reservoir computing, entropy-guided tuning, and online personalized forecasting, CASCADE reframes arrhythmia detection as a problem of dynamical regime transition rather than static classification. This perspective provides a scalable, interpretable, and computationally efficient framework for real-time cardiac monitoring and early-warning clinical decision support.

BackgroundPathogenic desmin (DES) variants have been implicated in early-onset atrial disease, yet the mechanisms by which desmin dysfunction alters atrial structure and function remain unclear. Desmin anchors the cytoskeleton to the nuclear envelope (NE) through the linker of nucleoskeleton and cytoskeleton (LINC) complex, suggesting that defects in this network may drive atrial cardiomyopathy. MethodsHuman desmin wild-type (WT) and the pathogenic variants p.S13F, p.N342D, and p.R454W were stably expressed in HL-1 atrial cardiomyocytes. Desmin organization, nuclear morphology, LINC-complex integrity (nesprin-3, lamin A/C), and DNA leakage, assessed by cyclic GMP-AMP synthase (cGAS), were analyzed by confocal microscopy. Action potential duration (APD) and calcium transients (CaT) were measured optically. Human myocardium samples from DES variant carriers were analyzed for validation. Data-independent acquisition (DIA) mass spectrometry profiled atrial proteomes from desmin-network (DN) and titin variant carriers and controls. The heat-shock proteins (HSPs) inducer geranylgeranylacetone (GGA) was evaluated for rescue effects. Resultsp.N342D caused severe filament-assembly defects with prominent perinuclear aggregates, whereas p.S13F showed mixed phenotypes with frequent perinuclear aggregates, and p.R454W largely preserved filamentous networks. p.N342D and p.S13F induced nuclear deformation with disrupted nesprin-3 and lamin A/C distribution. In p.N342D and p.S13F, desmin aggregates drove focal lamin A/C accumulation, nuclear envelope (NE) rupture, DNA leakage, and increased cGAS activation. DES variants significantly shortened APD20/90 and reduced CaT amplitude, indicating pro-arrhythmic electrical remodeling. Atrial proteomics revealed a DN-specific signature enriched for cytoskeletal, NE, intermediate filament, and chaperone pathways, consistent with the structural injury observed in vitro. GGA prevented desmin aggregation and nuclear morphology changes, and mitigated APD shortening in p.N342D-expressing cardiomyocytes. Human myocardium from DES variant carriers showed concordant desmin aggregation and polarized lamin A/C distribution. ConclusionsDES variants induce a desmin-dependent atrial cardiomyopathy characterized by cytoskeletal disorganization, disruption of LINC-complex, NE rupture with DNA leakage, and pro-arrhythmic electrophysiological remodeling. These findings provide mechanistic insight into how DN variants promote atrial disease. HSPs induction by GGA partially restores structural and functional integrity, identifying a potential therapeutic approach for desmin-related atrial cardiomyopathy. Clinical perspectiveWhat is new? O_LIPathogenic DES variants induce a previously unrecognized atrial cardiomyopathy characterized by desmin aggregation, and desmin-network (DN) collapse, disruption of the linker of nucleoskeleton and cytoskeleton (LINC) complex, and nuclear envelope rupture with DNA leakage. C_LIO_LIVariants that lead to desmin aggregation (e.g., p.N342D) cause focal lamin A/C polarization, cyclic GMP-AMP synthase (cGAS) activation, and structural injury at the nuclear envelope. C_LIO_LIDES variants produce pro-arrhythmic electrical remodeling, including action potential duration shortening and impaired Ca{superscript 2} handling in HL-1 atrial cardiomyocytes. C_LIO_LIAtrial proteomics from DN variant carriers reveals enrichment of pathways related to cytoskeletal, nuclear envelope, intermediate filament, and chaperone, supporting a desmin-dependent remodeling program. C_LIO_LIThe heat-shock protein inducer geranylgeranylacetone (GGA) prevents desmin aggregation, restores nuclear morphology, and mitigates electrical and Ca{superscript 2} handling remodeling. C_LI What are the clinical implications? O_LIThese findings establish DN dysfunction as a distinct cause of atrial cardiomyopathy, providing a mechanistic basis for the association between pathogenic DES variants and atrial arrhythmias, including atrial fibrillation. C_LIO_LINuclear envelope rupture and cytosolic DNA leakage represent new mechanistic evidence which links cytoskeletal injury and atrial arrhythmogenesis. C_LIO_LIIdentifying structural vulnerability in DES variant carriers fosters awareness of genetic counseling for atrial disease, enabling early detection and risk stratification. C_LIO_LIThe protective effects of GGA suggest that restoring proteostasis may be a therapeutic strategy for desmin-related atrial cardiomyopathy and potentially other genetic atrial diseases. C_LI Novelty and significance statementO_ST_ABSNoveltyC_ST_ABSThis study identifies a desmin-dependent atrial cardiomyopathy driven by cytoskeletal aggregation, LINC-complex disruption, and nuclear envelope rupture with DNA leakage. We show that pathogenic DES variants are associated with pro-arrhythmic molecular remodeling and that human atrial proteomics confirm nuclear envelope and cytoskeletal injury as core features. Importantly, the heat-shock protein-inducer GGA rescues structural, molecular, and electrophysiological defects, revealing a modifiable pathway in desmin-mediated atrial disease. SignificanceThese findings provide the first integrated mechanistic explanation linking DN variants to atrial cardiomyopathy. By uncovering nuclear envelope rupture and cGAS activation as key drivers of atrial cardiomyopathy, this work expands the molecular framework for inherited atrial disease and highlights proteostasis enhancement as a potential therapeutic strategy for patients carrying DES and related cytoskeletal variants. Graphical abstract O_FIG O_LINKSMALLFIG WIDTH=166 HEIGHT=200 SRC="FIGDIR/small/26348559v1_ufig1.gif" ALT="Figure 1"> View larger version (51K): org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@1fb0bfborg.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@cfc00borg.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@1493578org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@1556b61_HPS_FORMAT_FIGEXP M_FIG C_FIG

BackgroundSympathetic modulation via the stellate ganglia is increasingly recognized as a contributor to ventricular arrhythmogenesis after myocardial infarction. However, the mechanisms by which autonomic remodeling interacts with chronic infarct substrates to shape arrhythmic vulnerability remain incompletely understood. ObjectivesTo test the hypothesis that left- and right-sided stellate ganglion-mediated SNS modulation differentially reshapes ventricular arrhythmic vulnerability in chronic post-infarcted substrates, and that the RVI detects changes in vulnerability beyond conventional stimulation-based inducibility. MethodsFourteen patient-specific ventricular models with chronic post-infarcted remodeling were reconstructed from imaging data. A total of 336 simulations were performed under different combinations of stellate ganglion modulation, border zone remodeling, and fibroblast density. Arrhythmic vulnerability was quantified using 3D RVI mapping during paced rhythms and compared with conventional stimulation-based inducibility outcomes. ResultsStellate ganglion modulation induced marked, regionally heterogeneous changes in repolarization timing, resulting in lower and more negative RVI values in vulnerable regions. More negative RVI values reflect increased propensity for wavefront-waveback interaction and reentry initiation. Across the cohort, stellate modulation consistently decreased RVImin, even when inducibility outcomes remained unchanged. These findings indicate that SNS modulation can create a substrate more permissive to reentry independently of whether ventricular arrhythmia is triggered during programmed stimulation. ConclusionsStellate ganglion-mediated sympathetic modulation dynamically reshapes ventricular arrhythmic vulnerability in chronic post-infarcted substrates. RVI provides a spatially resolved, vulnerability-based metric that complements inducibility testing by revealing autonomic-substrate interactions underlying arrhythmogenesis Condensed AbstractSympathetic modulation via the stellate ganglia can alter ventricular repolarization and promote arrhythmogenesis after myocardial infarction, yet clinical responses remain heterogeneous. Using 14 patient-specific post-infarction ventricular models, we simulated left- and right-sided stellate modulation across combinations of border zone remodeling and fibrosis (336 simulations). Stellate modulation induced regionally heterogeneous repolarization shortening and reduced RVI values, even when programmed stimulation inducibility remained unchanged. These findings suggest that RVI captures substrate-level vulnerability beyond binary induction testing and may improve mechanistic assessment of autonomic-substrate interactions in chronic infarct substrates.

Background and Aims: Acute myocarditis (AM) is a T cell-mediated myocardial disease with clinical manifestations ranging from mild chest pain to cardiogenic shock. Reliable biomarkers to stratify patients and guide therapy are currently lacking. In particular, the extent of the dysregulation of inflammatory pathways, and the impact on myocardial dysfunction, remain elusive. Methods: Serum analyses were performed in prospectively recruited AM patients (n = 103) from two independent cohorts. Multimodal data integration combining profiling of cytokine and chemokine dysregulation with clinical biomarkers was used to define clinical phenotypes with distinct inflammatory signatures. Machine-learning and regression models were applied to determine biomarkers that indicate clinical severity. Results: Immuno-proteomic profiling revealed conserved inflammatory patterns across AM cohorts, dominated by T cell-related cytokines and chemokines. In addition, AM patients showed dysregulation of fibroblast-derived cytokines, including hepatocyte growth factor (HGF), bone morphogenic protein 4 (BMP4) and the BMP4 inhibitors Gremlin-1 (GREM1) and Gremlin-2 (GREM2). Data integration and unsupervised clustering revealed two immuno-clinical phenotypes, linking T cell activation and fibroblast dysregulation to disease severity. Machine learning-based analysis identified CXCL10, GREM2 and LVEF as critical parameters for stratifying disease severity. Conclusions: These findings highlight a systemic T cell activation signature as diagnostic hallmark of AM. In addition, dysregulation of fibroblast-derived tissue cytokines serves as an indicator for distinct immuno-clinical phenotypes in myocardial inflammatory disease. Thus, the clinically relevant link between T cell-driven immune activation, myocardial inflammation and fibroblast-driven remodelling provides a versatile set of parameters to identify severe manifestations of AM.

Background and Aims: Alterations in immunoglobulin G (IgG) N-glycosylation are implicated in inflammatory bowel disease (IBD); however, the robustness of IgG glycan signatures across IBD cohorts with diverse demographics and geographic origins remains underexplored. We aimed to determine whether compositional data analysis (CoDA) and machine learning (ML) can identify IBD-related IgG N-glycan signatures and whether these signatures capture disease-associated acceleration of biological aging. Methods: We analyzed the IgG glycome profiles of 1,367 plasma samples collected from healthy controls (HC), symptomatic controls (SC), and people with newly diagnosed Crohn's (CD), and ulcerative colitis (UC) across four cohorts (UK, Italy, United States, and Netherlands). IgG glycosylation was analyzed by ultra-high-performance liquid chromatography, yielding 24 total-area-normalized glycan peaks (GPs). Analyses were performed using cross-sectional data obtained at baseline. CoDA-powered association analyses were used to identify disease-related effects on GPs while controlling for demographic covariates. ML models were trained and evaluated to assess generalizability to unseen cohorts and demographic subgroups, with a focus on discrimination and reliability. Results: Across all cohorts, people with IBD demonstrated accelerated biological aging as quantified by the GlycanAge index. This was accompanied by consistent reductions in IgG galactosylation, with effects partially modulated by age. Classification models trained on glycomics and demographics achieved robust discrimination (AUROC~0.80) between non-IBD (HC+SC) and IBD across cohorts. Conclusion: These findings reveal accelerated biological aging in people with IBD and support the translational potential of IgG glycans as biomarkers and a novel route toward clinically interpretable personalized risk estimates.

Background: The enterotype concept proposed that gut microbiomes cluster into discrete types, but subsequent critiques demonstrated that such clustering depends on methodological choices, that the number of clusters is not fixed, and that faecal samples cannot capture spatial heterogeneity along the gastrointestinal tract. The stomach remains particularly understudied, and no systematic classification exists for gastric microbial community types. Methods: We assembled a multi-cohort dataset of 566 gastric mucosal samples spanning healthy controls to gastric cancer, with both Helicobacter pylori (HP)-negative and HP-positive individuals. Critically, we applied the key methodological lessons of the enterotype debate: we used a variational autoencoder (VAE) for dimensionality reduction to learn a continuous latent representation without forcing discrete structure, determined the optimal number of clusters using the Silhouette index (an absolute validation measure) across K=2 to K=10 rather than arbitrarily selecting a cluster number, and performed transparent evaluation of multiple clustering solutions. This VAE-plus-silhouette workflow directly addresses the critiques leveled against the original enterotype analysis. Results: Four gastotypes were identified, with K=4 achieving the highest mean silhouette score, indicating good cluster cohesion and separation. Two gastotypes (Variovorax-type and Trabulsiella-type) were significantly enriched in HP-positive samples, while two gastotypes (Bacteroides-type and Streptococcus-type) were significantly enriched in HP-negative samples. Random Forest and Gradient Boosting achieved excellent baseline performance for predicting HP infection (AUC = 0.990 and 0.993). Conclusions: The VAE-plus-silhouette workflow provides a robust, data-driven approach for identifying gastotypes without forcing discrete structure or arbitrarily fixing cluster numbers. Using this framework, we identified four gastotypes with significantly different HP infection rates. Variovorax-type and Trabulsiella-type showed strong HP-positive enrichment, while Bacteroides-type and Streptococcus-type showed strong HP-negative enrichment. These findings demonstrate that methodological advances from the enterotype controversy can be successfully transferred to the stomach, offering a reproducible taxonomy for stratifying HP infection status with potential clinical utility.

1.Study questionDo singletons conceived by medically assisted reproduction (MAR) experience an elevated incidence of childhood cancers and are they at a greater risk of such cancers compared to naturally-conceived singletons? Summary answerWe found no strong evidence the adjusted risk of childhood cancers is increased for MAR-conceived singletons. What is known alreadyThere is longstanding concern children conceived via MAR may be at increased risk of childhood cancer. Current epidemiological evidence does not support such a relationship. Study design, size, durationWe conducted a retrospective population-based cohort study of 5,104,121 singletons born in Australia between 1991 and 2019. Median follow-up time varied from 4 to 10 years depending on mode of conception. Participants/materials, setting, methodsWe linked birth records to public medical insurance data of the mother to ascertain MAR conception. We classified treatment as ovulation induction/intrauterine insemination (OI/IUI) or assisted reproductive technology (ART; IVF/ICSI), with ART coded as either fresh embryo transfer or frozen embryo transfer. The cohort included 4,924,354 naturally-conceived singletons and 179,767 singletons conceived via MAR. We calculated standardised incidence ratios (SIRs) to ascertain differences in population incidence of childhood cancer, and generated hazard ratios (HRs) using flexible parametric survival models controlling for key confounders. We report absolute incidence and risk differences for both statistical approaches. Main results and the role of chanceThere was no increase in the incidence or risk of all childhood cancers combined for singletons conceived via MAR, either any MAR or specific MAR types. There was some evidence the incidence of leukemias, myeloproliferative diseases, and myelodysplastic diseases was increased after ART compared to the general population (SIR: 1.32, 95% CI 1.02-1.68; equating to 2.09, 95% CI 0.13-4.44 extra cancers per 100,000 person-years), but no increased risk after adjusting for available confounders (HR: 1.04, 95% CI 0.73-1.46). These cancers showed increased incidence and risk for those conceived via IVF (SIR: 1.54, 95% CI 1.01-2.26; HR: 1.77, 95% CI 1.06-2.95), but not ICSI (SIR: 1.27, 95% CI 0.83-1.85; HR: 0.76, 95% CI 0.48-1.22). Incidence of renal tumours was elevated after IVF (SIR: 2.37, 95% CI 1.02-4.67; equating to 1.83, 95% CI 0.03-3.99 extra cancers per 100,000 person-years) and frozen transfer ART (SIR: 2.52, 95% CI 1.09-4.97; equating to 2.12, 95%CI 0.12-5.53 extra cancers per 100,000 person-years), however risk was not elevated after adjusting for available confounders (HR: 1.06, 95% CI 0.47-2.38; and HR: 1.63, 95% CI 0.73-3.61 respectively). Limitations, reasons for cautionWe did not have information on parental cause of infertility, which could be a confounder for childhood cancer, although we did adjust for parental history of cancer. For many specific cancer types, fewer than 50 cases were observed in total. Given the number of comparisons reported and closeness of the lower-bound confidence interval to 1, we cannot exclude that a significant association between conception via IVF and leukemias, myeloproliferative diseases, and myelodysplastic diseases reflects a type I error. Wider implications of the findingsOur findings align generally with published meta-analyses on the risk of childhood cancers following MAR conception and reinforce the need for very large studies to increase confidence. Parents who have conceived via MAR and their offspring can be reassured there is not strong evidence the treatments increase the overall incidence or risk of childhood cancer. Study funding/competing interest(s)This work was funded by the National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC: APP1164852). Dr ARW declares that their involvement in this work was supported by employment at UNSW Sydney. Prof CMV declares payment to their institution from the National Health and Medical Research Council (APP1164852). Prof NH declares payment to their institution from the National Health and Medical Research Council (APP1164852); royalties and licenses for Berek and Hackets Gynecologic Oncology (Walters Kluwer); royalties and licenses for Hacker and Moores Essentials of Obstetrics and Gynecology (Elsevier); consulting fees from Darwin Hospital and Gold Coast University Hospital; support for attending the British Gynaecological Cancer Society meeting in Aberdeen, UK, Jun 2023; support for attending the Symposium on Gynaecological Cancer in Budapest, Hungary, Nov 2023; support for attending the International conference of the Rajiv Gandhi Cancer Centre in Delhi, India, Mar 2025; and membership of the Medical Advisory Committee for TruScreen (Australia and New Zealand). A/Prof SO declares that they received payment to their institution from the National Health and Medical Research Council (APP1164852); they received a grant from the European Society for Human Reproduction and Embryology (Open call 2022) including payment to their institution; and that they are a member of the Advisory Board of the Cervical Screening Program in Norway through The Norwegian Institute of Public Health (NIPH), for which they were reimbursed travel expenses to their institution. Prof MC declares support for Theramex European Society for Human Reproduction and Embryology registration and Fertility Society of Australia and New Zealand registration and accommodation. A/Prof USD declares that her involvement in this work was supported via an Early Career Fellowship from the Cancer Institute NSW (ID: 2020/ECF1163) and employment at UNSW Sydney. A/Prof USD also declares payment to their institution from the National Health and Medical Research Council (APP2035240) and the Medical Research Future Fund (APP2032214; APP2038377), and the Australian Research Council (DP240100072) as well as current grants from NSW Health, Prince of Wales Hospital Foundation, and unpaid involvement as an Associate Editor for the "Journal of Psycho-Oncology Research and Practice". Prof LJ declares payment to their institution from the National Health and Medical Research Council (APP1164852). Prof RJN declares they are the Chair of the Clinical Advisory Committee, Westmead Fertility; External mentor at VinMec hospital; Editorial Editor at the journal "Fertility and Sterility"; and has received funding from the National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) for the NHMRC Centre for Research Excellence in Womens Health in Reproductive Life (CRE WHiRL). A/Prof CS declares stock or stock options associated with CSL Ltd, Sigma Healthcare Ltd, Resmed Inc, Medical Developments International Ltd, Vitrafy Life Sciences Ltd, Intuitive Surgical, and Steris PLC. Prof GMC declares payment to their institution from the National Health and Medical Research Council (APP1164852). Prof CV declares payment to their institution from the National Health and Medical Research Council (APP1164852); research grants receive from Merck KGaA and Ferring; payments for honoraria from Merk Ltd, Merk Sharpe & Dohme, Ferring, Organon, Gedeon-Richter for being an invited lecturer in scientific meetings/conferences on multiple occasions as well as member of advisory boards for these companies who have a commercial portfolio in the field of assisted reproduction technology (ART); and speaking fees from IBSA, Vianex, Sonapharm; travel support for their participation in scientific meetings/conferences both nationally and internationally, usually as an invited speaker for the following companies - Merck Ltd, Merck Sharpe & Dohme, Ferring, Organon, Gedeon-Richter; unpaid involvement as a Board member of the Hellenic Society of Fertility and Sterility, Member of the Editorial Board of the journal "Human Reproduction", Senior Deputy of the Coordination Committee of the Special Interest Group "Reproductive Endocrinology" of the European Society for Human Reproduction and Embryology, Member of the Editorial Board of the journal "F&S Reviews", Member of the Editorial Board of the journal "RBM Online", Member of the Editorial Board of the journal "Reproductive Biology & Endocrinology", Member of the Editorial Board of the journal "Frontiers in Endocrinology", and Member of the Editorial Board of the journal "Reproductive Sciences". SubjectReproductive epidemiology