Global Change Biology
○ Wiley
Preprints posted in the last 7 days, ranked by how well they match Global Change Biology's content profile, based on 78 papers previously published here. The average preprint has a 0.09% match score for this journal, so anything above that is already an above-average fit.
Lopez-Idiaquez, D.; Satarkar, D.; Sheldon, B. C.
Show abstract
Most evidence of the consequences of climate change in natural systems has focussed on shifts in mean temperature (1,2), but the effects of extreme climatic events (ECEs) remain far less understood. This is particularly true for very severe ECEs that may occur only once every few decades. Understanding the consequences of these severe events for natural populations is nonetheless critical, since their frequency is predicted to rise under current climate change (3). Here we combine a unique long-term dataset spanning almost five decades of breeding (>20,000 events) and morphological data (>120,000 observations) in adult and nestling great tits (Parus major) and blue tits (Cyanistes caeruleus) with fine-scale temperature records to examine the effects of an unprecedented heatwave in May 2026 on breeding success and morphology. Average temperature during the heatwave (22-29 May 2026) was 7.85 C above the historical record, reaching +10.5 C (+4.32 SD) at its peak (25-26 May). These record-breaking temperatures significantly reduced adult breeding success and nestling bmass relative to expectation in the absence of a heat-wave. Given the heatwave was widespread (Fig. 1A), our findings from a single, exceptionally well-studied population are likely to generalise to other species exposed to the same event, providing key evidence that severe ECEs can substantially harm wild populations.
van Denderen, P. D.; Andersen, K. H.; Denechere, R.
Show abstract
Squid abundance has been reported to increase globally between 1970 and 2010. This increase has been hypothesized to result from two primary factors: the loss of top predators due to overfishing and rising ocean temperatures. The decline in apex predators may lead to the expansion of squid populations either through reduced predation pressure or diminished competition with juvenile predators. Concurrently, increased temperatures could enhance the somatic growth rates of squid, thereby accelerating their population growth. However, empirically disentangling the impacts of predator loss and temperature on squid biomass remains challenging, especially in a food-web context. In this study, we used a size- and trait-based model of upper trophic levels that resolves the ecosystem structure -- biomass and trophic interactions of fish and squid -- for varying depth, temperature, and secondary production, to investigate two hypotheses of the historical expansion of squid, i.e., the effects of predator depletion from fishing and rising temperatures on squid biomass. Our model reveals that intensified fishing of squid predators -- specifically large demersal fish in shelf systems and large pelagic fish in open oceans -- leads to a slight increase in squid biomass. Conversely, elevated temperatures are associated with a decline in squid biomass. This temperature-driven reduction in biomass is attributed to an increased metabolism of squids beyond the available food supply. If historic overfishing on large marine predators continues to be curtailed, we expect a corresponding reduction in global squid biomass and fisheries potential, which could be further exacerbated by rising temperatures.
Barral, A.; Suzuki, K.; Kikuchi, Y.; Nakaoka, S.-i.; Takao, S.; Nakaoka, S.
Show abstract
Marine diatoms contribute to about 20% of global primary production. We present the first basin-scale, multiyear assessment of diatom communities in the North Pacific, combining taxonomically high-resolution RuBisCO large subunit gene (rbcL) metabarcoding with concurrent environmental measurements. Using a nine-year time series of daily samples resolved at the species level via ~500 bp rbcL fragments, we performed multivariate analyses across biogeographic provinces, identifying significant correlations between community structure and environmental drivers such as temperature and macronutrient availability. We report the prevalence of a previously overlooked centric diatom species in the North Pacific, Eunotogramma lunatum, which appears to be near-dominant even in subarctic high-nitrate, low-chlorophyll waters where pennate diatoms are typically favored. These results demonstrate the power of rbcL for large-scale ocean monitoring and provide a critical baseline for future studies of diatom population dynamics, climate change impacts, and ecosystem resilience in a key marine region.
Zapfe, K. L.; Parker, E.; Elias, D.; Hogue, G. M.; Dornburg, A.
Show abstract
Urbanization is reshaping freshwater ecosystems, with well-documented effects across gradients of land-use change, hydrologic alteration, and habitat degradation. However, how biodiversity is organized among neighboring urban aquatic habitats that differ in hydrologic connectivity, disturbance transmission, residence time, management history, and opportunities for species movement is often less clear. This creates a challenge for interpreting urban fish communities at local scales as species occurrence may reflect both contemporary habitat filtering and historical contingencies including native persistence, interbasin transfer, stocking, and nonindigenous introductions. Here we use eDNA detections, historical records, phylogenetic information, and species trait data to investigate the fish assemblages of the Charlotte metropolitan region. We detect a highly mixed fauna that also depicts a strong signature of structured biodiversity profiles across taxonomic, phylogenetic, functional, and life-history dimensions between habitat types. In particular, bounded habitats contained assemblages with larger-bodied species that are fecund and faster to reproduce relative to free-flowing habitats. Species-level occurrence models did not support a simple trait-by-habitat rule. Instead our results demonstrate that urban aquatic habitats can sort historically mixed regional species pools into predictable assemblage-level life-history profiles while simultaneously retaining signatures of evolutionary and historical biogeographic contingency.
Baumeister, J.; Bakhtiari, M. M.; Schreiber, M.; Eisenring, M.; Gossner, M.; Walden, S.; Becker, A.; Bouffaud, M. L.; Cesarz, S.; Dauphin, B.; Eisenhauer, N.; Goldmann, K.; Heidrich, L.; Jurburg, S.; Junker, R. R.; Kreuzwieser, J.; Lampei, C.; Nauss, T.; Peter, M.; Prada-Salcedo, L.; Tarkka, M.; Werner, C.; Zeuss, D.; Herrmann, S.; Buscot, F.; Heer, K.; Opgenoorth, L.
Show abstract
1. Forest canopies harbour strong microclimatic gradients that shape plant performance, species interactions and ecosystem processes. Yet, despite renewed interest sparked by global change, forest canopies remain difficult-to-access experimental spaces. 2. With the goal to expand access to tree canopies as experimental arenas, we designed, built, and tested TreeTOP, a standardized experimental platform that opens canopy space for manipulative ecological experiments, specifically with potted plants. TreeTOP features lightweight aluminum frames placed in mature tree canopies non-invasively, allowing potted plants to be placed in three different heights, ground level, shade canopy, and sun canopy. 3. We implemented TreeTOP using two contrasting infrastructure concepts to demonstrate its applicability in both highly equipped canopy research facilities and forests without permanent canopy infrastructure. One installation relied on a canopy crane, grid power and fully automated irrigation, whereas the second was built by certified tree climbers and was equipped with an autonomous solar-powered, battery-operated irrigation system. At both sites, environmental sensor networks monitor the experiment. 4. TreeTOP successfully reproduced characteristic canopy microclimatic gradients, including increasing light availability, daytime air temperatures and thermal extremes with canopy height. Despite differing infrastructures, both implementations generated comparable microclimatic patterns, demonstrating that standardized canopy experiments are feasible in forests with or without permanent canopy access. By opening canopy space for manipulative experiments, TreeTOP provides a transferable framework for investigating plant performance, phenology, species interactions and microbiome assembly under realistic forest conditions.
Yamaguchi, K.; Uchida, K.; Hiraiwa, M.; Fukano, Y.
Show abstract
Citizen science observations are abundant, but conservation requires turning uneven records into reliable predictions and directing new surveys to where information is missing. We developed a biodiversity platform for Japan that is updated monthly and integrates 2.32 million records to predict 8,297 species across seven taxonomic groups. Shared representation models outperformed species-specific models in four groups and extended predictions to species with few records. Five independent datasets, including structured monitoring, environmental DNA and complete forest inventories, confirmed that the models ranked observed species and occupied sites above alternatives, with median AUCs of 0.724 to 0.894 across sites and 0.650 to 0.841 across species. For any user-selected area, the platform returns candidate species, distribution predictions, a biodiversity map corrected for uneven observation effort, a conservation priority map for native species and a map recommending where to survey next. This map highlights places where species with few records are predicted to occur despite limited sampling. Independent observations showed that areas ranked highly by this predicted potential contained many such species, indicating that model predictions can help direct surveys toward knowledge gaps. New observations are incorporated into monthly updates, creating a national feedback system connecting citizen science, local conservation decisions and future surveys.
Li, D.; Liu, J.; Sun, S.; Chen, H.; Shen, W.; Wang, X.; Shen, C.
Show abstract
Background In adults, cold-attributable mortality exceeds heat-attributable mortality roughly 17-fold. Child-specific evidence has begun to emerge only recently - a nationwide Brazilian case-crossover study located the minimum mortality temperature (MMT) for under-five deaths, and a 56-country survey-based analysis linked monthly temperature anomalies to under-five mortality - but no multi-country, climate-zone-resolved estimate of the childhood respiratory-infection MMT exists, and whether temperature variability is independently associated with childhood respiratory mortality at the global scale is unknown. We quantified both. Methods We combined Global Burden of Disease 2023 mortality estimates, lower respiratory infection (LRI) deaths at ages 0-19 years and asthma deaths at ages 0-24 years, 171 countries, 1990-2023 - with 0.5 deg monthly land temperature and diurnal temperature range (DTR) fields from C-LSAT/C-LDTR (1901-2023). Four exposure dimensions (annual mean, DTR, seasonal amplitude, interannual variability) entered two-way fixed-effects models with Driscoll-Kraay standard errors. A quadratic term in mean temperature located the MMT, with percentile confidence intervals from a 300-replication country-cluster bootstrap. Future-exposure leads, country-level detrending, and permutation tests assessed contemporaneous causality, applied to both the linear coefficients and the quadratic term generating the MMT; national pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV3) coverage and ambient PM2.5 exposure series were added as time-varying mechanistic covariates. Results The childhood LRI MMT was 17.1 C (95% CI 14.7-19.8), the 36th percentile of the annual-temperature distribution; zone estimates were 24.7 C in tropical and 15.8 C in subtropical countries, with weak temperate and no subarctic identification. The quadratic term underpinning the MMT, however, failed both falsification checks - future temperatures reproduced the U-shape and country-level detrending erased it - so these MMT values describe a trend-level geographic pattern of the annual construct rather than a contemporaneous dose-response. Interannual temperature variability was positively associated with LRI (+0.278, 95% CI 0.102-0.454; p = 0.002) and asthma mortality (+0.836, 95% CI 0.447-1.226; p = 2.6 x 10^-5) per 1 C, but future-exposure models returned nearly identical significant coefficients and detrending erased significance, supporting only a trend-level association; adjustment for national PCV3 coverage and PM2.5 exposure left these estimates essentially unchanged. Annual mean temperature was likewise inversely associated with both outcomes at the trend level; DTR and seasonal amplitude showed no independent within-country effects. Conclusions This study provides the first multi-country, climate-zone-resolved geography of the optimal temperature for childhood respiratory survival, spanning 171 countries; because the underlying quadratic association is trend-level, the estimates are directional. The observed variability-mortality associations are trend-level signals rather than contemporaneous causal evidence; daily-scale, child-specific designs are required to determine whether short-term thermal variability affects paediatric respiratory mortality.
Li, D.; Miao, Y.; Zhang, Y.; Chen, H.; Wang, X.; Shen, C.
Show abstract
Background Childhood respiratory mortality in China has fallen by over 90% in three decades alongside sustained national warming, yet national long-run evidence on temperature and child respiratory mortality is lacking. Methods We linked Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 mortality estimates for China - lower respiratory infections (LRI), ages 0-19, and asthma, ages 0-24, 1990-2021 - with C-LSAT 0.5 deg gridded temperature data (1990-2019), aggregated nationally and to five climate zones. Four annual indicators (mean temperature, diurnal temperature range, seasonal amplitude, interannual variability) entered regressions of log mortality rates with Newey-West standard errors. A bootstrapped (500 resamples) quadratic model probed the minimum mortality temperature (MMT), with PM2.5-adjusted analyses and future-exposure, permutation, and detrended falsification tests. Results LRI deaths fell by 96.3% (330,194 in 1990 to 12,098 in 2021; 95% uncertainty interval 9,669-14,891) and asthma deaths by 94.9% (3,287 to 167), while mean temperature rose 0.364 deg C per decade and diurnal temperature range narrowed 0.092 deg C per decade. Baseline coefficients were large (mean temperature -1.696, SE 0.174; diurnal temperature range +2.408, SE 0.336; seasonal amplitude -0.162, SE 0.082; interannual variability +2.924, SE 1.514, per 1 deg C in log rate), but the future-exposure test failed and detrending nullified every coefficient: the associations are trend-level, and short-cycle causal effects are not identifiable. Nor was the national MMT identifiable - observed temperature support spans only 6.66-8.13 deg C, and the nominal turning point of 35.84 deg C is an extrapolation artifact (quadratic term p = 0.963). Within the observed range, warming and declining mortality moved in the same direction. Conclusions The 96% decline in childhood respiratory mortality cannot be attributed to warming. China sits on the low-temperature side of the optimum, and the marginal direction of future warming requires stronger designs to establish. The falsification framework offers a discipline for climate-health inference in China.
Monaghan, A. I. T.; Griffiths, N. P.; Sellers, G. S.; Lawson Handley, L.; Nunn, A. D.; Hänfling, B.; Macarthur, J. A.; Wright, R. M.; Cattaneo, M.; Bolland, J. D.
Show abstract
Context Pumping stations pose a threat to fish globally through land use change, habitat fragmentation and entrainment risk, with the catadromous and critically endangered European eel particularly impacted. Objectives/methods Establish, model, assess and understand the present-day distribution of European eel and resident fishes in 152 pumping station catchments in a once extensive wetland (The Fens) using eDNA metabarcoding (855 samples over two and half years), with specific focus on anthropogenic influences on hydrological connectivity and habitat quality. A removal survey design maximised confidence in negative results while minimising time and consumable costs. Results Eel occurrence upstream of pumping stations was low (occupancy = 28.3%) and positively associated with catchment area, fish species richness and natural hydrological connectivity (gravity drainage or flooding) and negatively associated with distance from the tidal limit. Fish species richness replaced catchment area and improved model performance, potentially acting as a biotic indicator of habitat quality and connectivity. Pumped catchments with manually operated upstream water transfers had reduced eel presence, potentially linked to the direction of water flow or the timing of operation. By contrast, fish species richness increased in these catchments during summer, suggesting displacement into unsuitable long-term habitats. Physical habitat maintenance had no detectable effect on eel occurrence or fish species richness. Conclusions This study provides the first landscape-scale assessment of European eel distribution and drivers of occurrence in pumped river catchments. The highly novel and comprehensive insights have implications for European eel conservation as well as infrastructure and catchment management, including compliance with legislation (EC Regulation No. 1100/2007).
Jaouen, E.; Fiorile, C.; Riera, P.; Blondel, L.; Gachenot, M.; Le Gall, F.; Nogaret, P.; Leroux, C.; Six, C.; Le Panse, S.; Probert, I.; Gourvil, P.; Bigeard, E.; Simon, N.; Baudoux, A.-C.
Show abstract
Viral infection is a major yet poorly quantified driver of microbial interactions and biogeochemical fluxes in the ocean. In diatoms, which are key contributors to marine primary production, the extent to which viruses reprogram host cell metabolism and alter elemental cycling remains largely unresolved. Here, we investigated how infection by a lytic single-stranded RNA virus reshapes carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) fluxes in the ecologically relevant nanoplanktonic diatom Mediolabrus comicus. Using controlled infection experiments coupled with flow cytometry, electron microscopy, PAM fluorimetry, and stable isotope probing, we resolved infection-driven changes from the population to the cellular scale. Infection induced rapid optical shifts and cellular reorganization, including the formation of membrane-bound viral replication compartments. These changes coincided with early impairment of plastidial functions, as shown by disruption of photosystem II functionality and a concomitant decline in photosynthetic carbon fixation. In contrast, nitrogen uptake was maintained and strongly enhanced during late stages of infection, indicating sustained resource acquisition to support viral replication. This decoupling led to dynamic changes in cellular stoichiometry and, overall, to substantial reductions in population-level carbon and nitrogen assimilation due to growth inhibition. Together, these findings demonstrate that diatom RNA virus infection reshapes host carbon and nitrogen metabolism, with cascading effects on elemental cycling. Our results identify diatom RNA viruses as important drivers of marine biogeochemical processes, with implications for primary production and the fate of organic matter in the ocean.
Verret, F. G.; Hartle-Mougiou, K.; Chantzaras, C.; Peltekis, A.; Margiotta, F.; Sarno, D.; Cardini, U.; Alba, M.; Pizziol, V.; Markopoulos, I.; Papadopoulou, I.; Percopo, I.; Tramontano, F.; Maselli, M.; Novellino, A.; Psarra, S.; Montresor, M.; Mowlem, M. C.; Gizeli, E.; Valiadi, M.
Show abstract
Diatoms are major contributors to marine primary production, yet current approaches for monitoring their abundance and function rely on coarse satellite chlorophyll estimates or sparse cell count and carbon fixation measurements. Molecular markers are a promising approach for high-resolution measurement of both abundance and metabolic activity through analysis of environmental DNA (eDNA) and RNA (eRNA). We present an isothermal quantitative recombinase polymerase amplification (qRPA) assay targeting rbcL gene copies and transcripts of marine diatoms, operating at low temperature and producing results in less than 15 min. We demonstrate specificity and calibration across diverse diatom taxa, then apply the assay to eDNA and eRNA samples from the Mare Chiara Long-Term Ecological Research site in the Bay of Naples, Italy, alongside microscopy, chlorophyll, physicochemical, and carbon-fixation data. Diatom rbcL DNA tracked abundance across five orders of magnitude despite seasonal shifts in community composition. Combining molecular and optical data revealed increased cellular rbcL copies and chlorophyll in low-light winter populations, suggesting enhanced photosynthetic capacity despite lower abundance. Furthermore, rbcL RNA reflected total carbon fixation rates and identified populations with differing carbon fixation activity. These results support rapid, RPA-based rbcL quantification as a robust approach for biomolecular ocean observing.
Huang, S.; Wang, X.
Show abstract
Background: Pro-inflammatory and high-environmental-impact diets both threaten population and planetary health, but whether the two objectives align or conflict across countries is unresolved. We tested whether a supply-based dietary inflammatory index (sDII) is coupled to greenhouse-gas (GHG), land and freshwater footprints, and whether a nutrition-feasible reallocation can lower both simultaneously. Methods: From FAO Food Balance Sheets we built sDII (12 inflammatory-weighted components; construct validity r=0.9999) and five per-capita footprints using three independent life-cycle inventories for 182 national food-supply series. For each country, constrained optimisation reallocated 13 food-group supplies under isoenergetic, protein-preserving and food-group-bound constraints, minimising sDII and GHG jointly (Pareto frontier). Health burden was estimated via pooled relative-risk meta-analysis and 2023 World Bank population data. Results: sDII was only weakly associated with GHG (Spearman rho=0.14), land (rho=0.13) and freshwater (rho=0.28) in 2023. The balanced-Pareto reallocation lowered both sDII and GHG in 182/182 series (100% synergy): population-weighted delta sDII=-0.235, GHG -37.5%, land -49.3%, water -17.2%, i.e. 4.28 Gt CO2e/yr avoided. The associated reduction in metabolic-syndrome burden was directionally consistent but modest (~1.1% of the prevalent pool, ~2.84 million cases). Results were robust to three life-cycle inventories and three feasibility-bound regimes. Conclusions: Anti-inflammatory and low-carbon goals are decoupled rather than conflicting, and an isoenergetic, protein-preserving reallocation reconciles them in every country. Environmental gains are large and robust; health gains are directionally consistent but modest--triangulation, not a causal claim.
Yamasaki, L.; Murayama, H.; Chua, P. L.; Hashizume, M.; Parks, R. M.
Show abstract
Mechanisms shaping population vulnerability to typhoon-related mortality remain poorly understood. Constructing a Bayesian spatio-temporal model, we linked 12.9 million deaths across Japan from 2010 to 2019 to population-weighted typhoon wind exposure and assessed effect modification by income, natural hazard vulnerability and healthcare access. Typhoon exposure was associated with 2,426 cumulative excess deaths [95% credible interval: 139, 4,632] among adults [≥]70 years, with mortality increasing within 0-1 weeks of exposure and more strongly in areas with limited healthcare access and greater hazard vulnerability. Among individuals <70 years, cumulative excess mortality was uncertain [781 deaths; -309 to 1,900], but delayed mortality increases were concentrated in lower-income and landslide-prone areas. These distinct patterns suggest that typhoon mortality reflects an interaction between acute exposure, demographic ageing and geographically uneven adaptive capacity, highlighting the need to incorporate local vulnerability into climate-resilient health systems.
White, J. R.; Robinson, J. D.; Doremus, M. R.
Show abstract
Heritable bacterial symbionts are pervasive in terrestrial arthropods, often imposing reproductive manipulations to promote their own spread within host populations. Co-infections are common, potentially allowing symbiont co-infectors to hitchhike through a host population. However, adverse thermal conditions can disrupt these communities, particularly when co-infectors vary in their thermal sensitivity. We used a multi-generation experiment to test whether warm (29 {degrees}C) conditions disrupted spread of heritable symbionts through uninfected populations of the spider, Mermessus fradeorum. We tested two common infection combinations: a single infection with a cytoplasmic incompatibility (CI) inducing Rickettsiella or a feminizing co-infection that included a feminizing Wolbachia, the same Rickettsiella, and up to three apparent hitchhikers (two additional Wolbachia strains and Tisiphia). We initiated replicate populations with 1/3 of one infection type and 2/3 uninfected spiders, evaluating population infection rate over 5 spider generations under different temperature regimes. Under cool (21{degrees}C) conditions, Wolbachia feminization drove co-infection to 88% and Rickettsiella CI drove single infection to 83% of host populations. Vertical transmission for all symbionts was high (97-99%) and hitchhiking symbionts also spread effectively. Under warm conditions, feminization and CI efficacy were reduced, and symbionts suffered variably reduced vertical transmission. Warm conditions ultimately destroyed the co-infecting symbiont consortium and impeded symbiont spread. On its own, though, Rickettsiella was still able to increase, despite reduced strength of CI. We hypothesize that contrasting tensions between feminizing spread of the symbiont consortium versus environmentally driven loss of function and transmission may explain observed patterns of mixed infections in field populations of this spider.
Vinson, L. S.; Loo, T.; Kulshreshtha, S.; Dobson, R. C. J.; Meisrimler, C.
Show abstract
Water availability is critical for plants and their microbial communities, including pathogens. The plant pathogen Phytophthora cinnamomi persists in soils with fluctuating moisture, yet cellular responses to water limitation remain poorly understood in Phytophthora and oomycetes more broadly. Although we recently characterized the proteomic response of P. cinnamomi to NaCl-induced osmotic and ionic stress, its response to PEG-mediated water limitation remains poorly understood, leaving a critical gap in our understanding of drought-relevant stress adaptation. Here, we quantified mycelial growth and profiled time-resolved proteome dynamics of P. cinnamomi during polyethylene glycol (PEG-3350)-treatment, simulating moderate water limiting conditions. Treatment with 5% PEG-3350 enhanced radial mycelial growth relative to controls, with no early growth inhibition observed. Label-free proteomics identified 1,097 protein groups, with 880 proteins shared between conditions and an asymmetric abundance profile dominated by decreasing protein abundance over time. Only a small subset of proteins increased, mainly enzymes involved in redox buffering (e.g., thioredoxin and glutaredoxin-like proteins) and mitochondrial/metabolic regulation (e.g., alternative oxidase) and mitochondrial/metabolic regulation. Hierarchical clustering revealed a potential three-phase temporal program: early translational and regulatory remodeling (1-6 HPT), sustained metabolic adjustment (6-12 HPT), and delayed engagement of redox and proteostasis functions (12-24 HPT). Network analysis demonstrated that redox-associated function was integrated throughout this adaptation, with individual clusters further specialized by cofactor preference (NADP- versus NAD-dependent enzymes) and distinct metabolic roles (malate dehydrogenase, CoA-ligase activity). This coordinated, multi-phase reorganization sustained mycelial growth despite moderate osmotic stress, indicating that P. cinnamomi employs active proteomic adaptation rather than passive stress tolerance. These findings reveal the cellular mechanisms underlying drought persistence in this invasive pathogen and suggest molecular targets for disease management under water-limited conditions.
Shi, J.; Gu, Q.; Pan, J.; Yang, A.; Fan, M.
Show abstract
Human deep-space missions face bone-kidney risks that cannot be extrapolated from six-month ISS data. We built a 12-state Ca-bone-urine-stone mechanistic ODE model and jointly calibrated its 11 physiological parameters on eight ISS targets by Bayesian identification (M0 base = 19-D; M1 extension adds a GCR-bone coupling term for parsimony testing only), then propagated the M0 posterior to four environments (ISS, Lunar subsurface, Lunar surface, Mars). Lumbar-lower BMD loss increases with mission duration and partial-gravity unloading (ISS 180 d -4.83% -> Mars 730 d -12.15%; 2^3 factorial: duration 82.9%, gravity 12.5%, GCR main effect ~ 0), whereas stone rate follows the opposite gradient (ISS 16.1 vs Mars 13.1 per 1000 person-years), reflecting weakened partial-gravity bone resorption alongside residual urinary chemistry changes. The dominant pathway thus shifts from bone-centric on the ISS to kidney-centric on Mars, where residual urinary-chemistry changes-not bone resorption-drive stone risk. The direct GCR-bone coupling term is unidentifiable at current ISS doses (DeltaWAIC = +0.0076 +/- 0.126 SE), so M0 is retained as the main inference model. Bisphosphonates provide >=84% BMD protection but leave a urinary-chemistry residual, so bisphosphonate monotherapy would underestimate Mars stone risk; potassium-magnesium-citrate combinations (RRR_RSS 51%) should therefore be added to deep-space countermeasures. A Lunar-surface 365-day mission is the earliest environment on the NASA roadmap to cross a composite RED threshold. That profile differs from the regolith-shielded 180-day case in both cumulative GCR (~69x) and duration (2x), so a shielding-specific effect cannot be isolated here; forcing the GCR coupling terms to zero leaves all four composite tiers unchanged (0/4, Supp S24), and the shielded 180-day profile is YELLOW rather than GREEN. Independent hold-out validation (Culliton 2025 60-day HDT-bedrest RCT, n=8 control arm of n=24 total) supports the M0 posterior predictive distribution on the lumbar-BMD sub-scope.
Brodsky, V.; Weckwerth, W.; Naegele, T.
Show abstract
Plant cold acclimation emerges from coordinated adjustments in photosynthesis, primary metabolism, and intracellular carbon allocation. Yet, the regulatory role of subcellular metabolite compartmentation in natural variation of cold acclimation remains insufficiently understood. Here, we investigated four Arabidopsis thaliana accessions grown either individually or in bulk to determine how growth configuration and genotype shape the metabolism of sugars and organic acids during cold exposure. Using non-aqueous fractionation, we quantified plastidial, cytosolic, and vacuolar sugar pools alongside whole-cell carbohydrates, organic acids, enzyme activities, photosynthetic parameters, and stress markers. A neural-network classifier revealed that subcellular sugar distribution together with sugar amounts and organic acids provided the strongest discriminatory power among accessions, surpassing photosynthetic traits and enzyme activities. Our findings demonstrate that natural variation in cold acclimation is strongly determined by genotype-specific subcellular metabolite architectures, and that the cultivation strategy modulates these intracellular signatures. We conclude that subcellular compartmentation of metabolites represents a cellular control layer for natural variation of cold acclimation and resilience in Arabidopsis thaliana.
Desparmet, A.; Lavaud, J.; Jesus, B.; Medico, A.; Hubas, C.
Show abstract
Intertidal mudflats are low hydrodynamic energy environments hosting microphytobenthic communities that experience strong spatiotemporal variability in light regimes, including changes in spectral quality and light intensity that can lead to cellular photooxidative stress. To cope with these fluctuations, autotrophs exhibit diverse and highly plastic adaptations that are often species-dependent and shaped by their ecological niches. This study investigates photophysiological responses and metabolic remodeling in a diatom assemblage originating from a natural winter microphytobenthic biofilm under contrasting red and blue light intensities. To this end, photosynthetic parameters were monitored alongside changes in lipophilic metabolites, including untargeted lipids and lipophilic pigments. While few metabolites showed temporal remodeling, rapid and contrasting changes were observed within 30 minutes in response to both spectral quality and light intensity. Red light treatments induced broader remodeling of lipophilic metabolites than blue light, whereas blue light appeared to have a greater impact on photosynthetic parameters. Moreover, red light induced xanthophyll-cycle responses comparable to those observed under blue light at equivalent incident intensity. We discuss these metabolic responses in relation to diatom photoadaptive strategies, placing these findings within the intertidal environmental framework. This work further underlines the importance of understanding rapid metabolic plasticity in coping with light fluctuations, providing new insights into the photoregulatory strategies of natural microphytobenthic communities.
Singh, P.; Jaison, M.; Saha, N.; Dutta, S.; Sen, A.; Biswas, T.; Mandal, B.; Mukherjee, S.; Dash, B.; Sahu, B.; Patel, R.; Dasgupta, A.
Show abstract
Microbial and biochemical properties of soil respond quickly with management practices, than chemical and physical properties. Moreover, impact of conservation agriculture (CA) on soil microbial properties is limited to microbial enumeration, but its effect on soil enzyme and microbial activity is little documented. To address these problems soil enzyme activities [dehydrogenase (DHA), {beta}-glucosidase (BGA), acid phosphatase (AcP) and alkaline phosphatase (AlP) and fluoresceine diacetate (FDA)], microbial activites ((Nitrogen fixation (NFBAct), Phosphate solubilization (PSBAct) & Cellulolytic activities (CDBAct)), microbial biomass ((Soil microbial biomass carbon (SMBC) & soil microbial biomass nitrogen (SMBN)) and available nutrient were studied to evaluate biological soil health in alluvial soil of lower Indo-Gangetic plain (IGP) under CA. Field experiment was conducted in split plot design (SPD), under 3 cropping systems (RMCp: rice-maize-cowpea; RWGg: rice-wheat- green gram; RCfBr; rice-cauliflower- bororice/summer rice). Tillage operations (CT: conventional; MT: minimum and ZT: zero tillage) was main plot and residue application as sub plot treatments [(R0 (no residue), R50 (50% residue) and R100 (100% residue)], treatments were replicated thrice. Biological soil health index (BSHI) indicated that among different degree of CA, ZT (0.464) and (MT=0.441) and R100 (0.464) treatment showed better response. Among different cropping system RMCp (0.359) & RWGg (0.343) outperformed RCfBr (0.609) cropping system with respect to (wrt) microbial and biochemical properties of the soil. Results indicated that for restoring microbial and biochemical properties of soil CA can be used as sustainable practice to restore agro-ecosystem. Keywords: Conservation agriculture, Cropping systems, Soil enzyme, Soil microbial properties, Residue application, Tillage operations.
Byrne, H. A. M.; Hartley, M. E. H.; Perez, I.; Scotese, C. R.; Lunt, D. J.; Valdes, P. J.; Green, J. A. M.
Show abstract
The ocean tides influence key Earth system processes at a range of spatial and temporal scales. It is known that the geometry of ocean basins is the leading controller of tidal energetics, so well-constrained palaeogeographic reconstructions and tidal properties for Earths past are imperative when investigating other Earth system processes. Here, we present a novel way to constrain both deep-time tidal model results and reconstructions, by combining palaeoecology with sedimentology. We compare new palaeo-tidal model simulations for the Cambrian period, significant for the early origin and radiation of major animal fauna, to tidal proxies. One of the most abundant soft-bodied organisms preserved during this time are cnidarian medusae (jellyfish). A total of 17 cnidarian medusae localities were obtained through the literature, which had an adequate global distribution and occurred at regular intervals throughout the period of study. In some locations there were also estimates of palaeo-tidal range. Our results show a good agreement between the simulations and proxy data. In the few locations where there is disagreement, it is proposed that the palaeogeographic reconstructions are missing details, e.g., island chains, and our results allow for the palaeogeographic reconstructions to be improved. The proxy method presented is promising and can be applied to other time-periods with different marine fossils, particularly at evolutionary and extinction periods where the marginal marine environment is of importance.